diff --git a/litellm/router_strategy/savings_baseline.py b/litellm/router_strategy/savings_baseline.py
index f13a2868388..0e17025679d 100644
--- a/litellm/router_strategy/savings_baseline.py
+++ b/litellm/router_strategy/savings_baseline.py
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ class Baseline(NamedTuple):
 
 def conversation_is_continuing(messages: Sequence[Mapping[str, object]] | None) -> bool:
     """Return whether the request contains evidence of an earlier assistant turn."""
-    return any(message.get("role") == "assistant" for message in messages or ())
+    return not messages or any(message.get("role") == "assistant" for message in messages)
 
 
 def canonical_model(model: str, custom_llm_provider: str | None = None) -> str | None:
diff --git a/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/adaptive_router/test_async_pre_routing.py b/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/adaptive_router/test_async_pre_routing.py
index c2efed2e1bf..9e0efc05247 100644
--- a/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/adaptive_router/test_async_pre_routing.py
+++ b/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/adaptive_router/test_async_pre_routing.py
@@ -7,12 +7,11 @@ model on metadata, and return a PreRoutingHookResponse.
 Routing is stateless per-turn — `pick_model` does not take a session id.
 """
 
-from unittest.mock import AsyncMock
+from unittest.mock import AsyncMock, MagicMock
 
 import pytest
 
 from litellm.router_strategy.adaptive_router.adaptive_router import AdaptiveRouter
-from litellm.router_strategy.savings_baseline import Baseline
 from litellm.types.router import (
     AdaptiveRouterConfig,
     PreRoutingHookResponse,
@@ -45,14 +44,20 @@ async def test_returns_pre_routing_hook_response_with_chosen_model():
 
 
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
-async def test_records_savings_baseline_and_conversation_shape(monkeypatch):
+async def test_records_savings_baseline_and_conversation_shape():
     router = _make_router()
-    router.litellm_router_instance = object()
+    router_instance = MagicMock()
+    router_instance.model_name_to_deployment_indices = {"fast": [0], "smart": [1]}
+    router_instance.model_list = [
+        {"litellm_params": {"model": "openai/fast"}, "model_info": {"id": "fast-id"}},
+        {"litellm_params": {"model": "openai/smart"}, "model_info": {"id": "smart-id"}},
+    ]
+    router_instance.get_deployment_model_info.side_effect = lambda deployment_id, model: {
+        "input_cost_per_token": 0.00000015 if deployment_id == "fast-id" else 0.000005,
+        "output_cost_per_token": 0.00000015 if deployment_id == "fast-id" else 0.000005,
+    }
+    router.litellm_router_instance = router_instance
     router.pick_model = AsyncMock(return_value="smart")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
-    monkeypatch.setattr(
-        "litellm.router_strategy.adaptive_router.adaptive_router.resolve_baseline",
-        lambda router, models: Baseline("openai/smart", "deployment-id"),
-    )
 
     response = await router.async_pre_routing_hook(
         model="smart-cheap-router",
@@ -67,7 +72,20 @@ async def test_records_savings_baseline_and_conversation_shape(monkeypatch):
     assert response is not None
     assert response.routing_decision["conversation_continuing"] is True
     assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_model"] == "openai/smart"
-    assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_deployment_id"] == "deployment-id"
+    assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_deployment_id"] == "smart-id"
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_empty_messages_use_conservative_continuing_shape():
+    router = _make_router()
+    router.pick_model = AsyncMock(return_value="smart")  # type: ignore[method-assign]
+
+    response = await router.async_pre_routing_hook(
+        model="smart-cheap-router", request_kwargs={}, messages=None
+    )
+
+    assert response is not None
+    assert response.routing_decision["conversation_continuing"] is True
 
 
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
diff --git a/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/test_quality_router.py b/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/test_quality_router.py
index d85e137b410..98ba9915342 100644
--- a/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/test_quality_router.py
+++ b/tests/test_litellm/router_strategy/test_quality_router.py
@@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ from litellm.router_strategy.quality_router.config import (
     DEFAULT_COMPLEXITY_TO_QUALITY,
 )
 from litellm.router_strategy.quality_router.quality_router import QualityRouter
-from litellm.router_strategy.savings_baseline import Baseline
 
 
 def _make_model_list(spec: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
@@ -824,10 +823,23 @@ class TestKeywordOverride:
 
 class TestDecisionMetadata:
     @pytest.mark.asyncio
-    async def test_decision_includes_savings_baseline_and_conversation_shape(self, quality_router, monkeypatch):
-        monkeypatch.setattr(
-            "litellm.router_strategy.quality_router.quality_router.resolve_baseline",
-            lambda router, models: Baseline("openai/opus-next", "id-opus-next"),
+    async def test_decision_includes_savings_baseline_and_conversation_shape(self, quality_router):
+        quality_router.litellm_router_instance.model_name_to_deployment_indices = {
+            "haiku": [0],
+            "sonnet": [1],
+            "opus": [2],
+            "opus-next": [3],
+        }
+        quality_router.litellm_router_instance.get_deployment_model_info.side_effect = (
+            lambda deployment_id, model: {
+                "input_cost_per_token": {
+                    "id-haiku": 0.000001,
+                    "id-sonnet": 0.000002,
+                    "id-opus": 0.000003,
+                    "id-opus-next": 0.000004,
+                }[deployment_id],
+                "output_cost_per_token": 0.000001,
+            }
         )
         request_kwargs: Dict[str, Any] = {}
         response = await quality_router.async_pre_routing_hook(
@@ -842,8 +854,8 @@ class TestDecisionMetadata:
 
         assert response is not None
         assert response.routing_decision["conversation_continuing"] is True
-        assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_model"] == "openai/opus-next"
-        assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_deployment_id"] == "id-opus-next"
+        assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_model"] == "openai/sonnet"
+        assert response.routing_decision["savings_baseline_deployment_id"] == "id-sonnet"
 
         first_turn = await quality_router.async_pre_routing_hook(
             model="quality-router-test",