Guard template-signal bias by support split
This commit is contained in:
axiomlogicnexus
parent
2f8f392b84
commit
78d5057205
2 changed files with 154 additions and 9 deletions
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@ -172,6 +172,12 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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int32* OutSuppressedOutcomeRuns = nullptr
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);
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bool HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
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int32* OutConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns = nullptr,
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int32* OutBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns = nullptr
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);
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int32 BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakConfidenceBonus(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats
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);
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@ -634,7 +640,7 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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&SuppressedOutcomeRuns
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);
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Fragment += FString::Printf(
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TEXT(" | bias %s eligible %d/%d outcomes share %.2f | suppressed outcomes %d"),
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TEXT(" | snapshot-bias %s eligible %d/%d outcomes share %.2f | suppressed outcomes %d"),
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bBiasEarned ? TEXT("earned") : TEXT("suppressed"),
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ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns,
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TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns,
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@ -698,6 +704,19 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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- BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats.AverageMistakesPerOutcomeRun
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);
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}
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int32 ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns = 0;
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int32 BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns = 0;
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const bool bSupportBiasEarned = HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(
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TemplateStats,
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&ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns,
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&BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns
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);
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Fragment += FString::Printf(
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TEXT(" | support-bias %s bias outcomes %d | broader outcomes %d"),
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bSupportBiasEarned ? TEXT("earned") : TEXT("suppressed"),
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ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns,
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BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns
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);
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return Fragment;
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}
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@ -1483,6 +1502,13 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumScoreDelta = 1;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumSuccessDelta = 0.05f;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumMistakeImprovement = 0.5f;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns =
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2;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns =
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2;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumScoreDelta = 1;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumSuccessDelta = 0.05f;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumMistakeImprovement = 0.5f;
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int32 CountTemplateLaunchOutcomeRuns(const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats)
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{
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@ -1716,6 +1742,73 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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>= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumMistakeImprovement;
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}
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bool HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
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int32* OutConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns,
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int32* OutBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns
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)
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{
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionScopedStats* ConfidenceLaneBiasStats =
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nullptr;
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionScopedStats* BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats =
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nullptr;
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if (TemplateStats != nullptr && TemplateStats->IsStructurallyValid())
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{
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ConfidenceLaneBiasStats =
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&TemplateStats
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->DashboardAnalyticsTieBreakTemplateScopedSignalConfidenceLaneBiasStats;
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BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats =
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&TemplateStats
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->DashboardAnalyticsTieBreakTemplateScopedSignalBroaderOutcomeOnlyStats;
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}
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const int32 ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns =
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CountTemplateLaunchSelectionOutcomeRuns(ConfidenceLaneBiasStats);
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const int32 BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns =
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CountTemplateLaunchSelectionOutcomeRuns(BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats);
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if (OutConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns != nullptr)
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{
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*OutConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns = ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns;
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}
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if (OutBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns != nullptr)
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{
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*OutBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns = BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns;
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}
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if (!HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(TemplateStats)
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|| ConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns
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< TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumConfidenceLaneBiasOutcomeRuns
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|| BroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns
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< TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumBroaderOutcomeOnlyOutcomeRuns)
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{
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return false;
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}
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const int32 ConfidenceLaneBiasScore =
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BuildTemplateLaunchSelectionLaneAnalyticsScore(ConfidenceLaneBiasStats);
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const int32 BroaderOutcomeOnlyScore =
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BuildTemplateLaunchSelectionLaneAnalyticsScore(BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats);
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const int32 ScoreDelta = ConfidenceLaneBiasScore - BroaderOutcomeOnlyScore;
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const float SuccessDelta =
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(ConfidenceLaneBiasStats != nullptr && ConfidenceLaneBiasStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? ConfidenceLaneBiasStats->OverallSuccessRate
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: 0.0f)
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- (BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats != nullptr && BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats->OverallSuccessRate
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: 0.0f);
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const float MistakeImprovement =
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(BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats != nullptr && BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? BroaderOutcomeOnlyStats->AverageMistakesPerOutcomeRun
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: 0.0f)
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- (ConfidenceLaneBiasStats != nullptr && ConfidenceLaneBiasStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? ConfidenceLaneBiasStats->AverageMistakesPerOutcomeRun
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: 0.0f);
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return ScoreDelta >= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumScoreDelta
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|| SuccessDelta >= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumSuccessDelta
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|| MistakeImprovement
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>= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBiasMinimumMistakeImprovement;
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}
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int32 BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakConfidenceBonus(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats
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)
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@ -1974,16 +2067,16 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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}
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return Decision;
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}
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const int32 CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(CandidateStats) ? 1 : 0;
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const int32 IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(IncumbentStats) ? 1 : 0;
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if (CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus
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!= IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus)
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const int32 CandidateTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(CandidateStats) ? 1 : 0;
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const int32 IncumbentTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(IncumbentStats) ? 1 : 0;
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if (CandidateTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus
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!= IncumbentTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus)
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{
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Decision.bPreferCandidate =
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CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus
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> IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus;
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CandidateTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus
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> IncumbentTemplateSignalSupportBiasBonus;
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if (Decision.bPreferCandidate)
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{
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Decision.CandidateAnalyticsSupportKind =
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@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
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# HyperTwist Phase 4 template-signal support bias guard packet
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## Purpose
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This packet feeds the new `broader-outcome-only` versus `confidence-lane-bias` support split back into tied dashboard analytics selection. A template no longer gets the extra broader template-signal bias just because its retained confidence-snapshot lane looks eligible; it now also needs enough stored `confidence-lane-bias` outcomes and those outcomes need to beat plain broader-outcome wins.
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## Scope
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- add a support-split guard helper for broader template-signal bias
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- require the older confidence-snapshot bias to be earned first
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- require minimum outcome history in both:
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- `confidence-lane-bias`
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- `broader-outcome-only`
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- require the confidence-lane-bias bucket to beat the broader-outcome-only bucket on score or meaningful success / mistake improvement
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- use that stricter helper in tied analytics selection
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- surface the same `support-bias earned/suppressed` state in shared template analytics detail
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## What landed
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- `HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidget.cpp`
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- added `HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(...)`
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- the helper only returns true when:
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- `HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(...)` already clears
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- the template has at least `2` confidence-lane-bias outcome runs
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- the template has at least `2` broader-outcome-only outcome runs
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- the confidence-lane-bias bucket beats broader-outcome-only on lane score or shows meaningful success / mistake improvement
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- `ResolveTemplateAnalyticsPreferenceDecision(...)` now uses this stricter support bias when breaking otherwise tied broader analytics outcomes
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- shared `template-signal support` analytics detail now appends:
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- `support-bias earned`
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- or `support-bias suppressed`
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- plus the stored bias / broader outcome counts
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- the older confidence-snapshot fragment now labels its state as `snapshot-bias` so the two guards are not conflated
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## Product effect
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- broader template-signal bias only reinforces future tied selections when stored confidence-lane-bias outcomes have enough depth and are outperforming plain broader-outcome wins
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- templates with sparse or weaker confidence-lane-bias history no longer get that extra tie-break preference
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- live `[Template Launch]` detail, template history, and recap now show both the snapshot-bias state and the stricter support-bias state
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## Acceptance criteria
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- tied analytics selection uses the stricter support bias instead of the older snapshot bias alone
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- support bias requires minimum outcome history in both compared support buckets
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- support bias only clears when confidence-lane-bias beats broader-outcome-only on score or meaningful quality deltas
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- shared analytics detail exposes `support-bias earned/suppressed` with both bucket counts
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## Validation checklist
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1. full `Development Editor|Win64` build succeeds
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2. confirm tied analytics selection now checks `HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalSupportBias(...)`
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3. confirm the helper requires both bucket minimums and a positive lane comparison
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4. confirm shared analytics detail shows both `snapshot-bias` and `support-bias`
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