Bias tied template analytics by confidence lane
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axiomlogicnexus
parent
961386af73
commit
3325dc40b9
2 changed files with 186 additions and 0 deletions
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@ -160,6 +160,14 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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int32* OutPeerNoEvidenceOutcomeRuns = nullptr
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);
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bool HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
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int32* OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns = nullptr,
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int32* OutTemplateSignalOutcomeRuns = nullptr,
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float* OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare = nullptr,
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int32* OutSuppressedOutcomeRuns = nullptr
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);
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int32 BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakConfidenceBonus(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats
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);
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@ -570,6 +578,25 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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NoRetainedLaneStats,
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TEXT("no-retained-lane"))
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);
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int32 ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns = 0;
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int32 TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns = 0;
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int32 SuppressedOutcomeRuns = 0;
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float ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare = 0.0f;
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const bool bBiasEarned = HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(
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TemplateStats,
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&ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns,
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&TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns,
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&ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare,
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&SuppressedOutcomeRuns
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);
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Fragment += FString::Printf(
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TEXT(" | bias %s eligible %d/%d outcomes share %.2f | suppressed outcomes %d"),
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bBiasEarned ? TEXT("earned") : TEXT("suppressed"),
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ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns,
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TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns,
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ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare,
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SuppressedOutcomeRuns
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);
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if (ConfidenceEligibleStats.IsStructurallyValid()
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&& SuppressedStats.IsStructurallyValid()
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&& ConfidenceEligibleStats.GetOutcomeRunCount() > 0
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@ -1335,6 +1362,11 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchSelectionTieBreakConfidenceMinimumMistakeImprovement = 0.5f;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchSelectionTieBreakConfidenceMinimumComparablePeerOutcomeRuns = 2;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchSelectionTieBreakConfidenceMinimumComparablePeerOutcomeShare = 0.40f;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumEligibleOutcomeRuns = 2;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumEligibleOutcomeShare = 0.50f;
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constexpr int32 TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumScoreDelta = 1;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumSuccessDelta = 0.05f;
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constexpr float TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumMistakeImprovement = 0.5f;
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int32 CountTemplateLaunchOutcomeRuns(const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats)
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{
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@ -1479,6 +1511,95 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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>= TemplateLaunchSelectionTieBreakConfidenceMinimumComparablePeerOutcomeShare;
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}
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bool HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
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int32* OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns,
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int32* OutTemplateSignalOutcomeRuns,
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float* OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare,
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int32* OutSuppressedOutcomeRuns
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)
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{
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionScopedStats* TemplateSignalStats = nullptr;
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionScopedStats* ConfidenceEligibleStats =
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nullptr;
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionScopedStats* SuppressedStats = nullptr;
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if (TemplateStats != nullptr && TemplateStats->IsStructurallyValid())
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{
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TemplateSignalStats =
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&TemplateStats->DashboardAnalyticsTieBreakTemplateScopedSignalStats;
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ConfidenceEligibleStats =
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&TemplateStats
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->DashboardAnalyticsTieBreakTemplateScopedSignalConfidenceEligibleStats;
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SuppressedStats =
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&TemplateStats
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->DashboardAnalyticsTieBreakTemplateScopedSignalSuppressedPeerNoEvidenceHeavyStats;
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}
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const int32 ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns =
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CountTemplateLaunchSelectionOutcomeRuns(ConfidenceEligibleStats);
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const int32 TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns =
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CountTemplateLaunchSelectionOutcomeRuns(TemplateSignalStats);
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const int32 SuppressedOutcomeRuns =
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CountTemplateLaunchSelectionOutcomeRuns(SuppressedStats);
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const float ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare = TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns > 0
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? static_cast<float>(ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns)
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/ static_cast<float>(TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns)
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: 0.0f;
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if (OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns != nullptr)
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{
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*OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns = ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns;
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}
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if (OutTemplateSignalOutcomeRuns != nullptr)
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{
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*OutTemplateSignalOutcomeRuns = TemplateSignalOutcomeRuns;
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}
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if (OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare != nullptr)
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{
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*OutConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare = ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare;
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}
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if (OutSuppressedOutcomeRuns != nullptr)
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{
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*OutSuppressedOutcomeRuns = SuppressedOutcomeRuns;
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}
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if (ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeRuns
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< TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumEligibleOutcomeRuns
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|| ConfidenceEligibleOutcomeShare
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< TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumEligibleOutcomeShare)
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{
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return false;
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}
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if (SuppressedOutcomeRuns <= 0)
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{
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return true;
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}
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const int32 ConfidenceEligibleScore =
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BuildTemplateLaunchSelectionLaneAnalyticsScore(ConfidenceEligibleStats);
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const int32 SuppressedScore =
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BuildTemplateLaunchSelectionLaneAnalyticsScore(SuppressedStats);
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const int32 ScoreDelta = ConfidenceEligibleScore - SuppressedScore;
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const float SuccessDelta =
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(ConfidenceEligibleStats != nullptr && ConfidenceEligibleStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? ConfidenceEligibleStats->OverallSuccessRate
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: 0.0f)
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- (SuppressedStats != nullptr && SuppressedStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? SuppressedStats->OverallSuccessRate
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: 0.0f);
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const float MistakeImprovement =
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(SuppressedStats != nullptr && SuppressedStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? SuppressedStats->AverageMistakesPerOutcomeRun
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: 0.0f)
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- (ConfidenceEligibleStats != nullptr && ConfidenceEligibleStats->IsStructurallyValid()
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? ConfidenceEligibleStats->AverageMistakesPerOutcomeRun
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: 0.0f);
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return ScoreDelta >= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumScoreDelta
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|| SuccessDelta >= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumSuccessDelta
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|| MistakeImprovement
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>= TemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceMinimumMistakeImprovement;
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}
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int32 BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakConfidenceBonus(
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const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats
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)
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@ -1736,6 +1857,24 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
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}
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return Decision;
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}
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const int32 CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(CandidateStats) ? 1 : 0;
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const int32 IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus =
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HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(IncumbentStats) ? 1 : 0;
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if (CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus
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!= IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus)
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{
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Decision.bPreferCandidate =
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CandidateTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus
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> IncumbentTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBonus;
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if (Decision.bPreferCandidate)
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{
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Decision.CandidateAnalyticsSupportKind =
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EHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionAnalyticsSupportKind::
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TemplateScopedOutcomeSignal;
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}
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return Decision;
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}
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if (CandidateOutcomeRuns != IncumbentOutcomeRuns)
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{
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Decision.bPreferCandidate = CandidateOutcomeRuns > IncumbentOutcomeRuns;
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@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
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# HyperTwist Phase 4 template-signal confidence scoring bias packet
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## Purpose
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This packet feeds the new broader `TemplateScopedOutcomeSignal` confidence-snapshot split back into actual dashboard analytics tie-break selection. When the existing analytics score already ties, the selector can now conservatively prefer a template whose broader analytics wins are already landing in the `confidence-eligible` lane instead of a competing template whose broader wins still cluster in the `suppressed` lane.
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## Scope
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- add a conservative template-signal confidence-snapshot bias helper in dashboard selection logic
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- require minimum `confidence-eligible` outcome count and share before the bias can exist
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- if the template still has suppressed broader-history outcomes, require the eligible lane to beat or clearly improve on the suppressed lane before the bias is awarded
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- apply that bias only after the existing analytics score ties
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- surface the same bias-earned / bias-suppressed state in shared template analytics detail
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## What landed
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- `HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidget.cpp`
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- added `HasTemplateLaunchTemplateSignalConfidenceSnapshotBias(...)`
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- new guard requirements:
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- at least `2` `confidence-eligible` outcome runs
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- at least `0.50` eligible share within broader template-signal outcomes
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- if suppressed broader-history exists, eligible outcomes must beat it on lane score or show meaningful success / mistake improvement
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- `ResolveTemplateAnalyticsPreferenceDecision(...)` now consults this bias only after the existing analytics score already ties
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- shared template analytics detail now appends:
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- `bias earned` or `bias suppressed`
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- eligible outcome count/share
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- suppressed outcome count
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## Product effect
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- broader template-signal confidence history no longer just sits in analytics detail; it can now break otherwise tied analytics choices
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- the bias stays conservative because it does not override the main analytics score and it requires both sample depth and lane-share support
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- live `[Template Launch]` detail, template launch history, and run recap now expose whether the broader template-signal bias is currently earned or suppressed for the displayed template
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## Acceptance criteria
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- the new broader template-signal confidence bias only applies after the current analytics score ties
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- the bias requires minimum eligible outcome count and share
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- suppressed broader-history prevents the bias unless the eligible lane meaningfully beats or improves on it
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- shared analytics detail shows whether the broader template-signal bias is earned or suppressed
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## Validation checklist
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1. full `Development Editor|Win64` build succeeds
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2. confirm `ResolveTemplateAnalyticsPreferenceDecision(...)` checks the new bias only after score equality
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3. confirm the bias requires minimum eligible outcome count/share
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4. confirm shared analytics detail reports `bias earned` or `bias suppressed` with eligible count/share and suppressed count
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