Explain confidence lanes in analytics tie-breaks

UnrealHyperTwist/Source/UnrealHyperTwist/Private/HyperTwistTraining/HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidget.cpp

@@ -125,6 +125,11 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
 		const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats
 	);
 
+	FString BuildTemplateLaunchComparablePeerConfidenceAuditClause(
+		const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
+		const TCHAR* SubjectLabel
+	);
+
 	bool HasTemplateLaunchComparablePeerEvidenceForConfidenceBonus(
 		const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
 		int32* OutComparablePeerOutcomeRuns = nullptr,
@@ -349,10 +354,15 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
 		}
 		else
 		{
+			const FString SelectedComparablePeerConfidenceAuditClause =
+				BuildTemplateLaunchComparablePeerConfidenceAuditClause(
+					SelectedStats,
+					TEXT("chosen template"));
 			Provenance.DecisionSummaryLine = FString::Printf(
-				TEXT("Selector: tied with %s on primary dashboard priority; analytics preferred %s on broader template-scoped outcome signal without selector-split confidence support: chosen %s | peer %s."),
+				TEXT("Selector: tied with %s on primary dashboard priority; analytics preferred %s on broader template-scoped outcome signal without selector-split confidence support: %s | chosen %s | peer %s."),
 				*ResolveDashboardTemplateLaunchDisplayTitle(PeerTemplate),
 				*ResolveDashboardTemplateLaunchDisplayTitle(SelectedTemplate),
+				*SelectedComparablePeerConfidenceAuditClause,
 				*BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakSignalFragment(SelectedStats),
 				*BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakSignalFragment(PeerStats)
 			);
@@ -663,6 +673,43 @@ namespace HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidgetInternal
 		);
 	}
 
+	FString BuildTemplateLaunchComparablePeerConfidenceAuditClause(
+		const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchScopedStats* TemplateStats,
+		const TCHAR* SubjectLabel
+	)
+	{
+		const TCHAR* ResolvedSubjectLabel =
+			SubjectLabel != nullptr && SubjectLabel[0] != TEXT('\0')
+				? SubjectLabel
+				: TEXT("template");
+		if (TemplateStats == nullptr || !TemplateStats->IsStructurallyValid())
+		{
+			return FString::Printf(
+				TEXT("%s has no retained comparable-peer confidence lane yet"),
+				ResolvedSubjectLabel
+			);
+		}
+
+		int32 ComparablePeerOutcomeRuns = 0;
+		int32 SplitConfidenceOutcomeRuns = 0;
+		int32 PeerNoEvidenceOutcomeRuns = 0;
+		float ComparablePeerOutcomeShare = 0.0f;
+		const bool bGuardEarned = HasTemplateLaunchComparablePeerEvidenceForConfidenceBonus(
+			TemplateStats,
+			&ComparablePeerOutcomeRuns,
+			&SplitConfidenceOutcomeRuns,
+			&ComparablePeerOutcomeShare,
+			&PeerNoEvidenceOutcomeRuns
+		);
+
+		return FString::Printf(
+			TEXT("%s split-confidence lane is currently %s under the comparable-peer guard: %s"),
+			ResolvedSubjectLabel,
+			bGuardEarned ? TEXT("confidence-eligible") : TEXT("suppressed"),
+			*BuildTemplateLaunchComparablePeerConfidenceLaneFragment(TemplateStats)
+		);
+	}
+
 	FString BuildTemplateLaunchSelectionAnalyticsSupportDetailFragment(
 		const FHyperTwistTrainingTemplateLaunchSelectionProvenance* SelectionProvenance
 	)

docs/arch/HYPERTWIST_PHASE4_TEMPLATE_LAUNCH_ANALYTICS_TIEBREAK_CONFIDENCE_LANE_RATIONALE_PACKET_2026-05-07.md

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+# HyperTwist Phase 4 template launch analytics tie-break confidence-lane rationale packet
+
+Created on `2026-05-07`
+
+Status:
+
+- first-party HyperTwist packet
+- bounded Phase `4` dashboard selector rationale slice
+
+## Purpose
+
+This packet reuses the new comparable-peer confidence lanes inside the persisted analytics tie-break explanation itself. When a dashboard tie breaks on broader template-scoped outcome signal instead of `SelectorSplitConfidence`, the selector rationale now still says whether the chosen template's stored split-confidence lane is currently confidence-eligible or suppressed under the comparable-peer guard.
+
+## Scope
+
+Bounded lane:
+
+- add a small helper that converts the shared comparable-peer confidence lane data into a selector-rationale clause
+- wire that helper only into the broader template-scoped outcome signal branch of analytics tie-break provenance
+- keep the existing `SelectorSplitConfidence` rationale path unchanged
+- let live launch detail, template history, and template-backed recap inherit the richer explanation through existing provenance plumbing
+
+Out of scope:
+
+- widening provenance schema
+- changing selector policy or thresholds again
+- changing repository aggregation
+- adding another dashboard section
+
+## What landed
+
+Primary code changes:
+
+- `UnrealHyperTwist/Source/UnrealHyperTwist/Private/HyperTwistTraining/HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidget.cpp`
+  - added a helper that turns comparable-peer confidence lanes into a concise audit clause
+  - broader outcome-signal tie-break rationale now says whether the chosen template's split-confidence lane is currently `confidence-eligible` or `suppressed`
+  - that rationale clause includes the same synthesized `comparable-peer-backed` vs `peer-no-evidence-heavy` lane data already shown in shared template analytics
+
+## Product effect
+
+Analytics tie-break audit is now more coherent:
+
+- if analytics pick a template on broader outcome signal, the rationale still shows where that template currently stands on future split-confidence reinforcement
+- operators can compare the current tie-break reason against the template's comparable-peer confidence posture without leaving the persisted selector summary
+- live `[Template Launch]`, template launch history, and template-backed recap all inherit that explanation automatically
+
+## Acceptance criteria
+
+- broader template-scoped outcome-signal tie-break rationale includes comparable-peer confidence eligibility or suppression
+- rationale includes the synthesized confidence-lane view used elsewhere in shared template analytics
+- live launch detail, template history, and recap all inherit the richer rationale through persisted provenance
+- full product build succeeds
+
+## Validation checklist
+
+1. build `UnrealHyperTwist.sln` / `UnrealHyperTwistEditor`
+2. confirm broader outcome-signal tie-break rationale mentions confidence-eligible or suppressed split-confidence lane status
+3. confirm the same rationale includes the comparable-peer-backed vs peer-no-evidence-heavy lane view
+4. confirm live detail, template history, and recap all inherit the richer rationale
+
+That is the packet.