# HyperTwist Phase 4 template launch comparable-peer confidence guard packet

Created on `2026-05-07`

Status:

- first-party HyperTwist packet
- bounded Phase `4` dashboard selector confidence slice

## Purpose

This packet starts consuming the new peer-support disposition analytics in actual selector policy. The selector-split confidence bonus now requires enough wins against peers that had at least some comparable support-kind evidence, so stored confidence does not keep reinforcing itself mainly by beating peer lanes that had no comparable evidence at all.

## Scope

Bounded lane:

- keep the existing support-kind score, success, and mistake delta guard intact
- add a comparable-peer-evidence guard on top of it using the repo-backed peer disposition buckets
- require both:
  - a minimum count of selector-split-confidence outcomes against peers with comparable evidence
  - a minimum share of the template's selector-split-confidence outcome history coming from those comparable-evidence peers
- align the existing support-kind audit clause with the stricter guard so rationale stays honest

Out of scope:

- changing repo aggregation shape
- widening persisted provenance schema again
- adding a new dashboard panel
- feeding peer disposition directly into primary template scoring outside the selector-split confidence bonus

## What landed

Primary code changes:

- `UnrealHyperTwist/Source/UnrealHyperTwist/Private/HyperTwistTraining/HyperTwistCoachDashboardWidget.cpp`
  - added a helper that measures comparable-peer selector-split-confidence evidence from the repo-backed peer disposition buckets
  - `BuildTemplateLaunchAnalyticsTieBreakConfidenceBonus(...)` now refuses the bonus unless comparable-peer outcome history is deep enough and large enough as a share of the template's selector-split-confidence history
  - peer support-kind disposition resolution now treats insufficient comparable-peer evidence as `PeerLackedComparableEvidence`
  - support-kind audit text now explains the comparable-peer evidence requirement and shows counts/share when that guard fails or clears

## Product effect

Template selector confidence is more conservative:

- selector-split confidence reinforcement still requires the template's split-confidence bucket to beat its template-signal bucket
- but that is no longer enough by itself
- the template must also show enough split-confidence wins against peers that brought some comparable evidence, rather than relying mostly on peer-no-evidence lanes

## Acceptance criteria

- selector-split confidence bonus requires minimum comparable-peer outcome count and share
- insufficient comparable-peer evidence suppresses the bonus even when the support-kind split beats the template-signal bucket
- peer disposition and support-kind audit text stay aligned with the stricter guard
- full product build succeeds

## Validation checklist

1. build `UnrealHyperTwist.sln` / `UnrealHyperTwistEditor`
2. confirm selector-split confidence bonus now consults the repo-backed peer disposition buckets
3. confirm insufficient comparable-peer evidence suppresses the bonus
4. confirm support-kind audit text names the comparable-peer count/share requirement when relevant

That is the packet.
